What Will It Take For Rates to Climb?

Institutional investors often assume a degree of “return-to-normality” for long-term rates in their investment plans. But what are, if any, the preconditions for return to higher interest rates? And if those preconditions are not met,

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Run Economic and Geo-political Scenarios

Explore how Agent-Based Models (ABMs) can be used to run stress tests and scenario analyses.
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Putting Economics Back in Economic Scenarios

Rising complexity in the world and structural breaks across markets require new non-stochastic approaches to scenario generation. The world is also too complex for simplistic ad-hoc assessment. We demonstrate the insights gained by implementing a

Recent Opinions

Risk Wire: Is Global Reflation Sustainable?

The global reflation trade has been in the centre of investor attention lately. One-off factors such as Brexit, commodity price increases due to government policy in China and oil price that rebounded from low levels,

Risk Wire: Quantifying the Headlines From Trump to Brexit

Is media coverage of potential sources of economic disasters proportionate to their likely impact on the economy and institutional portfolios? Investors form their perception of the magnitude of risk based on large number of public

Risk Scenario: China Disorderly Economic Collapse

Why is The Scenario Risky? The second largest economy in the world, with reported debt-to-GDP rate of 240% to 280% and a far greater ratio, if shadow banking is taken into account (source: Bloomberg,

How We Tested “The Trump” With Mira

We extend LINKS Mira to the analysis at a portfolio and asset class levels. Mira enables us to value asset classes and carry out scenario analyses, such as the “Trump-effect”, presented in this issue. To

December 2, 2016, “Unarmed and Intuitive: Risk Management Event”

Join us at our inaugural meetup dedicated to creating impact with risk management. We misunderstand probability, we’re myopic, we pay attention to the wrong things, and we are just generally very bad at probabilities. The

Why Are We Still Unhappy About Risk Management?

Despite years of investment in the development of the function, risk management at pension funds and insurance companies still fails to deliver on the promise. A number of fundamental issues are to blame and there

We provide robust asset return forecasts, asset allocation and systemic risk management to institutional investors. Our competence lies in the field of cross asset valuation, global investment risk sources, pathways and network effects.